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Weekly intelligence for Supply-Chain, Procurement & CEO desks
LEADERSHIP NUGGET
China’s export surge continues to anchor global container volumes amid temporary tariff pauses, but East–West volatility persists. According to Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc, exports from China have lifted global container demand by 4 % in 2025, with East-to-West lanes up 9.6 %. Procurement leaders, however, face renewed post-Golden-Week demand and shifting regulations that could reintroduce cost pressure later in the quarter (FreightWaves, 2025).
EXEC SNAPSHOT - What changed this week
China export resilience. Exports rose 8.3 % in September, capturing 37 % global share and driving 4 % overall container growth despite U.S. declines; East-to-West lanes expanded 9.6 % to 1.6 million FEUs (Yahoo Finance, 2025).
Post-Golden-Week rebound. Demand to the U.S. and Europe surged, with SCFI rates up for two consecutive weeks on transpacific routes; Europe introduces a Peak Season Surcharge from Nov 12 for Asia-North Europe/Mediterranean shipments (Maersk North America, 2025; Maersk Europe, 2025).
Transatlantic adjustments. Space remains available but tight in Canada due to low water; Maersk adjusts its TA1/TA12 network ahead of holidays; “tenuous stability” persists after the U.S.–China tariff pause (Maersk North America, 2025; FreightWaves, 2025).
Tariff and customs flux. U.S. de minimis rules now impact low-value imports; EU cuts steel quotas 47 % and doubles duties to 50 %; Germany and Belgium digitize customs releases; importers diversify as 25 %+ tariffs remain on two-thirds of China-U.S. trade (Maersk North America, 2025; Maersk Europe, 2025; FreightWaves, 2025).
Following the Golden Week slowdown, Asia’s outbound volumes to both U.S. coasts and Europe have sharply rebounded (Maersk Europe, 2025). Transpacific reliability has reached 96.2 % to the U.S. West Coast, though inland rail congestion in Canada adds 1–2 weeks of delay (Maersk North America, 2025). Europe reports a 72 % parcel volume spike driven by Black Friday and Christmas demand, tightening last-mile capacity.
On the transatlantic, stability holds, but low water conditions in Canada continue into late November, prompting shippers to plan buffers. Rate signals remain mixed: Asia–U.S. West Coast down 1 % to $1,999 per FEU, East Coast up 4 % to $3,628; Asia–Europe up $300 to $2,500 per FEU — still below 2024 levels (FreightWaves, 2025).
Tariff dynamics add uncertainty: the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule by June on a potential reinstatement of paused fees, while EU steel quota reductions and the Mercosur trade framework create new monitoring requirements for sensitive industries (FreightWaves, 2025; Maersk Europe, 2025).
China’s exports to ASEAN (+15.6 %) and the EU (+14.1 %) compensate for U.S. declines, but analysts note rising dependency risks for Western procurement strategies (Yahoo Finance, 2025).
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KPI DASHBOARD - Trade Volatility Metrics
KPI (Key Performance Indicator) | Current Benchmark / Signal | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
Global Container Volume Growth (%) | 4 % in 2025 (Yahoo Finance, 2025) | Indicates demand resilience amid tariff uncertainty. |
East-to-West Lane Volumes (million FEUs) | 1.6 (+9.6 %) (Yahoo Finance, 2025) | Reflects Asia’s role in stabilizing global flows. |
Asia–U.S. West Coast Rate ($/FEU) | $1,999 (–1 %) (FreightWaves, 2025) | Suggests short-term cost relief but fragile margins. |
Asia–Europe Rate ($/FEU) | $2,500 (+$300) (FreightWaves, 2025) | Shows rebound pressure post-Golden Week. |
Tariff Exposure (% of China–U.S. Trade) | ~67 % at 25 %+ (FreightWaves, 2025) | Highlights continued need for supplier diversification. |
LEADERSHIP QUESTIONS
Have allocations been booked early enough for Asia–Europe and Asia–U.S. routes during the post-Golden-Week surge?
Are routing plans flexible enough to handle transatlantic adjustments and Canadian inland delays?
Are tariff and customs scenarios digitally monitored for real-time exposure?
Which suppliers are already diversified beyond China to limit duty impact?
How do new customs digitization processes in Germany and Belgium affect release timelines and costs?
ProcWee™ 3-MINUTE DIAGNOSTIC - Trade Readiness Check
(Assess how confidently your team manages these topics)
Team Capability | Fully confident | Not sure | No time / No resources |
|---|---|---|---|
Bookings secured 4–6 weeks ahead on key routes. | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ |
Flexible routing options built into logistics plans. | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ |
Tariff monitoring tools active for SKU-level analysis. | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ |
Supplier diversification beyond China evaluated. | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ |
Customs digitization processes fully implemented. | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ |
ONE-LINE VERDICT
China’s export surge stabilizes global trade volumes, but volatile tariffs and rebounding demand require early bookings and flexible routing to protect margins.
Sources
FreightWaves. (2025, November 6). New trade deals, and “tenuous stability” for ocean freight. Retrieved from https://www.freightwaves.com/news/new-trade-deals-and-tenuous-stability-for-ocean-freight
Maersk Europe. (2025, November 7). Maersk Europe Market Update – November 2025. Retrieved from https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2025/11/07/europe-market-update-november
Maersk North America. (2025, November 7). Maersk North America Market Update – November 2025. Retrieved from https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2025/11/07/north-america-market-update-november
Yahoo Finance. (2025, November 6). Maersk CEO: China’s Export Surge is Propping Up 2025 Container Market. Retrieved from https://finance.yahoo.com/news/maersk-ceo-china-export-surge-214721562.html