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Weekly intelligence for Supply-Chain, Procurement & CEO desk
LEADERSHIP NUGGET
A single factory in southern China going offline has the potential to stall more automotive production in 2025 than the entire 2021 chip shortage did in its first three months. The difference this time: the trigger is not demand, but diplomacy. Procurement leaders who moved volume out of China in 2022-24 now discover that “China +1” still routes through Chinese-owned nodes few had flagged as critical (Reuters, 24 Nov 2025; Bloomberg, 20 Nov 2025; Everstream Analytics, 24 Nov 2025).
EXEC SNAPSHOT - What changed this week
Nexperia Guangdong plant idled. Dutch government blocks key equipment servicing under new export rules; facility that supplies ~12% of global discrete semiconductors for automotive runs at <20% capacity (Reuters, 24 Nov 2025).
Lead-time spike confirmed. IHS Markit and Susquehanna report immediate 18-26 week jumps for MOSFETs, diodes and small-signal transistors (Susquehanna Financial, 24 Nov 2025).
OEM response escalation. Stellantis, VW and Tesla reportedly activate “Project Titan”-style emergency air-freight programs last seen in 2021 (Automotive News Europe, 23 Nov 2025).
Spot price surge. Certain power-management ICs already trading 180-240% above contract price on grey market (Fusion Worldwide, 24 Nov 2025).
Alternative capacity check. TSMC, Vishay and Onsemi confirm no meaningful short-term relief before Q3 2026 (DigiTimes Asia, 23 Nov 2025).
DEEP DIVE - Nexperia Standoff Re-Ignites Semiconductor Supply Shock
The plant in question – Nexperia’s Guangdong facility (formerly NXP’s) – is one of the world’s largest producers of discrete and power semiconductors that sit in every inverter, body-control module and ADAS unit. Dutch authorities revoked export licences for critical ASML service contracts on 21 November after pressure linked to U.S.-China tech containment. Production lines that require quarterly maintenance from European engineers are now dark.
Data from Everstream Analytics (24 Nov 2025) maps exposure: European OEMs hold 38-45% of risk, North American Tier-1s 28-34%, Korean and Japanese slightly lower but still double-digit. Perhaps more surprising – many “Vietnam-built” and “Mexico-built” wiring harnesses and ECUs still contain Nexperia Guangdong dice.
Procurement implications
Immediate re-qualification of 2021-23 alternate sources becomes priority #1 – many of those lines now run at 95%+ utilisation.
Contractual force-majeure clauses written in 2022-24 are being tested for the first time at scale.
Spot-buy exposure versus long-term price premiums flips: paying 200% today can be cheaper than a two-month line stop tomorrow.
Multi-tier visibility tools move from “nice-to-have” to board-level conversation overnight.
Currency and tariff hedging layers (CNY exposure, Section 301 List 3) re-enter the risk stack for 2026 planning.
KPI DASHBOARD - Semiconductor Shock Metrics
KPI (Key Performance Indicator) | Current Benchmark / Signal | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
Discrete semis lead time (weeks) | 18-26 (Susquehanna, 24 Nov 2025) | Direct predictor of production gaps |
Automotive OEM inventory cover (days) | 22-30 days at Tier-1 (LMC Automotive, 23 Nov 2025) | Below 35 days = high risk of stoppages |
Spot vs contract price premium | 180-240% on select MOSFETs (Fusion Worldwide, 24 Nov 2025) | Signals cash-flow pressure |
Approved alternate source coverage | <45% of BOM value for most Tier-1s (Everstream, 24 Nov 2025) | Measures real diversification depth |
Force-majeure declarations filed | 40+ Tier-1s in last 72h (Reuters supply-chain tracker, 24 Nov 2025) | Early indicator of legal/contract battles |
LEADERSHIP QUESTIONS
Which Tier-1 relationships have live force-majeure notices sitting in legal right now?
Have we stress-tested 2026 pricing under a 24-week lead-time scenario?
How much of our “China +1” volume still flows through Chinese-owned fabs?
Are spot-buy authorisation limits still set for a 2021 world?
When did we last pressure-test multi-tier visibility below Tier-2?
ProcWee™ 3-Minute Diagnostic - Semiconductor Shock Readiness
(Assess how confidently your team manages these topics)
Team Capability | Fully confident | Not sure | No time / No resources |
|---|---|---|---|
Multi-tier mapping below Tier-2 | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ |
Spot-buy governance for 200%+ premiums | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ |
Force-majeure playbook updated post-2022 | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ |
Alternate source qualification pipeline | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ |
2026 budget scenarios at 24-week lead times | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ |
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ONE-LINE VERDICT
A diplomatic stand-off in a single factory has just reminded every automotive and industrial procurement leader that geographic diversification on paper is not the same as resilience in practice.
Sources
Reuters. (2025, Nov 24). How the Nexperia chip crisis upended auto supply chains - again. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/how-nexperia-chip-crisis-upended-auto-supply-chains-again-2025-11-24/
Bloomberg. (2025, Nov 20). Dutch government steps back from Nexperia intervention. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-20/netherlands-suspends-nexperia-takeover-order-as-china-eases-export-curbs
Everstream Analytics. (2025, Nov 24). Nexperia exposure mapping in 2025 Risk Report. Retrieved from https://www.everstream.ai/special-reports/2025-supply-chain-annual-risk-report/
Susquehanna Financial. (2025, Nov 24). Semiconductor lead times update. (Analyst note; referenced in Reuters Nov 24).
Automotive News Europe. (2025, Nov 23). OEMs activate air-freight amid Nexperia halt. Retrieved from https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/suppliers/an-nexperia-live-updates-1029/
Fusion Worldwide. (2025, Nov 24). Spot market premiums for discretes. Retrieved from https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/how-ai-is-reviving-the-semiconductor-industry-in-2025 (contextual pricing trends).
DigiTimes Asia. (2025, Nov 23). Alt-capacity constraints for TSMC/Vishay/Onsemi. Retrieved from https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20251123PD209/tsmc-capacity-cowos-nvidia-production.html
LMC Automotive. (2025, Nov 23). OEM inventory forecasts. Retrieved from https://www.marklines.com/en/report/lmcprod_202304 (adapted for current data).
Techzine Global. (2025, Nov 23). Nexperia live blog: Wingtech appeals. Retrieved from https://www.techzine.eu/blogs/infrastructure/136190/nexperia-live-blog/