Weekly intelligence for Supply-Chain, Procurement & CEO desks
🎧📝EXEC BRIEFING: Your Podcast
EXEC SNAPSHOT
Suez Canal fights back. A 15 % toll rebate for ≥ 130 kt box-ships starts 15 May for 90 days, luring traffic from costly Cape detours (Reuters, 2025a).
Factories cool again. U-S ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in April (Reuters, 2025b); euro-area PMI ticked up to 49.0 (Reuters, 2025c); China’s Caixin PMI eased to 50.4 (Reuters, 2025d).
Consumers creak. U-S student-loan serious delinquency jumped to 8 % in Q1—up from 0.8 % in Q4 2024 (Reuters, 2025e).
Stat of the Week +7.2 ppt jump in serious student-loan arrears in a single quarter.
New York Fed (Change in Household Debt Balances Mixed; Student Loan Delinquencies Rise Sharply, 2025)
New York Fed (Change in Household Debt Balances Mixed; Student Loan Delinquencies Rise Sharply, 2025)
KPI DASHBOARD
Pulse | Latest | w/w Dir. | Read-Through |
|---|---|---|---|
Demand | ISM PMI 48.7 | ↘︎ | Soft U-S order books |
EZ PMI 49.0 | ↗︎ | Mild stabilisation | |
Caixin PMI 50.4 | ↘︎ | Export drag | |
Labour | Payrolls +177 k | — | Hiring still positive (Reuters, 2025f) |
Jobless Claims 228 k | ↘︎ | No mass layoffs (Reuters, 2025g) | |
Freight | Baltic Dry 1 304 | ↔︎ | Bulk capacity balanced (Reuters, 2025h) |
FBX Global $2 046/FEU | ↗︎ | Spot rates inch up (Freightos, 2025) | |
Prices | CRB 367.1 | ↗︎ | Commodity cost creep (Trading Economics, 2025) |
Copper $9 944/t | ↘︎ | Tariff front-run dip (Reuters, 2025i) | |
Credit | Student-loans 8 % | ↑ | Discretionary-demand risk |
Auto-loan balances $1.66 tn; serious delinquency transition edging up above pre-COVID (Reuters, 2025m) | ↑ | OEM build volatility |
DEEP-DIVE DEAL “Discounting the Ditch”
Egypt’s Suez Canal Authority’s 15 % rebate chops about USD 300 k from a 14 k TEU Asia-EU round trip, yet war-risk insurance still adds ~USD 400 k (Reuters, 2025a).
Playbook for CPOs & Logistics Heads
Route clauses – peg bunker surcharges to actual mileage; sunset Cape-route exceptions once flows normalise.
Lead times – Suez vs Cape = 9–12 days delta → tighten safety-stock targets now.
Insurance – re-shop marine cover weekly; cease-fire remains fragile.
COMMODITY CORNER
Move | Context | Action |
|---|---|---|
Cocoa £6 096/t (–9 % w/w); liquidity thin after record highs (Reuters, 2025j) | Mid-crop improving. | Lock Q4 cover; split tenders to curb margin calls. |
Copper –1.7 % to USD 9 944/t (Reuters, 2025i) | Tariff probe prompts import rush, then lull. | Add tariff pass-through language on Aug-delivery POs. |
SUPPLIER RADAR
Northvolt Germany TopCo filed for restructuring; Heide cell-plant build continues under separate SPV (Reuters, 2025k).
Tesla acquiring assets & 300 staff from insolvent automation group Manz AG; residual lines may face tooling delays (Reuters, 2025l).
TECH & TACTICS
Real-time freight pings. Freightos offers a free FBX JSON endpoint—pipe it through Zapier → Slack so buyers get an alert when China–USWC spot jumps ≥ 10 % w/w, buying 48 h to pre-pull urgent POs (Freightos, n.d.).
ONE-LINE VERDICT
PMIs flag mild contraction, freight rates have plateaued, but consumer-credit cracks are widening fast—trim inventories and secure liquidity buffers with key suppliers before the domino tumbles.
Abbreviation Register
Abbreviation | Meaning / Definition |
|---|---|
API | Application Programming Interface – allows automated data exchange between software systems |
BDI | Baltic Dry Index – benchmark for global dry-bulk freight rates |
CFO | Chief Financial Officer |
CEO | Chief Executive Officer |
CPO | Chief Procurement Officer |
CRB Index | Commodities Research Bureau Index – broad raw-materials price basket |
EZ | Eurozone (countries using the euro currency) |
FBX | Freightos Baltic Container Index – daily spot-rate benchmark for ocean freight |
FEU | Forty-Foot Equivalent Unit – 40-foot shipping container |
KPI | Key Performance Indicator |
PO | Purchase Order |
PMI | Purchasing Managers’ Index – diffusion index of manufacturing or services activity |
ppt | Percentage point (absolute change in a percentage value) |
Q1 / Q4 | First / Fourth quarter of a calendar year |
SPV | Special-Purpose Vehicle – legally separate entity for a specific project |
TEU | Twenty-Foot Equivalent Unit – 20-foot shipping container |
U-S / US | United States (country, used for data attribution) |
w/w | Week over week – comparison to the previous week |
y/y | Year over year – comparison to the same period a year earlier |
Sources List
New York Fed. (2025). Change in Household Debt Balances Mixed; Student Loan Delinquencies Rise Sharply. Retrieved from https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2025/20250513
Freightos. (2025). China-US de-escalation may spur early peak season – Weekly update. Retrieved from https://www.freightos.com/freight-industry-updates/weekly-freight-updates/china-us-deescalation-may-spur-early-peak-season-may-13-2025-update/
Freightos. (n.d.). Freightos Terminal – market intelligence & API. Retrieved from https://terminal.freightos.com/
Reuters. (2025a). Egypt’s Suez Canal offers 15 % discount for big container ships to win back trade. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/egypts-suez-canal-offers-15-rebate-container-ships-130000-tons-or-more-2025-05-13/
Reuters. (2025b). US manufacturing sector slump deepens in April. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-manufacturing-sectors-slump-deepens-april-2025-05-01/
Reuters. (2025c). Euro zone manufacturing showed more signs of stabilisation in April – PMI. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/euro-zone-manufacturing-showed-more-signs-stabilisation-april-pmi-2025-05-02/
Reuters. (2025d). China’s factory activity slows as US tariffs hit export orders. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-factory-activity-slows-us-tariffs-hit-export-orders-2025-04-30/
Reuters. (2025e). NY Fed: Student-loan borrowing trouble surged in first quarter. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ny-fed-student-loan-borrowing-trouble-surged-first-quarter-2025-05-13/
Reuters. (2025f). April U-S payrolls growth slows before full tariff impact felt. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/us/view-april-us-payrolls-growth-slows-before-full-tariff-impact-felt-2025-05-02/
Reuters. (2025g). U-S labour market stays resilient as weekly jobless claims fall. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-more-than-expected-2025-05-08/
Reuters. (2025h). Baltic Dry Index – market data page. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/quote/.BADI/
Reuters. (2025i). Goldman maintains copper price forecasts, says tariffs will avert U-S glut. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/goldman-maintains-copper-price-forecasts-says-tariffs-will-avert-us-glut-2025-03-26/
Reuters. (2025j). High cocoa prices bite into Barry Callebaut’s volume outlook, shares slump. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/high-cocoa-prices-bite-into-barry-callebauts-volume-outlook-shares-slump-2025-04-10/
Reuters. (2025k). Part of Northvolt’s German unit applies for restructuring. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/en/part-northvolts-german-unit-applies-restructuring-2025-05-09/
Reuters. (2025l). Tesla to acquire parts of insolvent German parts maker Manz. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/tesla-acquire-parts-insolvent-german-parts-maker-manz-2025-02-25/
Reuters. (2025m). NY Fed finds rising consumer debt amid some fraying for car loans. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ny-fed-finds-rising-consumer-debt-amid-some-fraying-car-loans-2025-02-13/
Trading Economics. (2025). CRB Commodity Index – price data. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crb
