Weekly intelligence for Supply-Chain, Procurement & CEO desks
EXEC SNAPSHOT
Oil flares up. Brent climbs 1.5 % to $66.35 / bbl on reports Israel may target Iranian nuclear sites, reviving Hormuz-closure fears (Reuters, 2025a).
Freight thermometer cools. Baltic Dry Index eases to 1 340 pts as tariff-front-loaded bulk orders fade (Reuters, 2025h).
Euro labour firms. Euro-area unemployment holds a record-low 6.2 % in March—wage-cost floor intact (Eurostat, 2025).
Tariffs bite Japan. April exports to the U.S. drop 1.8 %, snapping a four-month growth streak (Reuters, 2025n).
Stat of the Week +3 % w/w jump in Asia → US West Coast container rates to $2 462 / FEU (Freightos, 2025).
Freightos (Transpac ocean rates climbing on China-US rebound – May 20, 2025 Update)
KPI DASHBOARD
Pulse | Latest | w/w Dir. | Read-Through |
|---|---|---|---|
Demand | ISM PMI 48.7 | ↘︎ | U.S. order softness (Reuters, 2025b) |
EZ PMI 49.0 | ↗︎ | Near-stabilisation (Reuters, 2025c) | |
Caixin PMI 51.2 | ↗︎ | China export pull (Reuters, 2025d) | |
Labour (US) | Payrolls +177 k | — | Hiring intact (Reuters, 2025f) |
Jobless Claims 215 k | ↘︎ | Lay-offs muted (Reuters, 2025g) | |
Labour (EU) | Unemployment 6.2 % | ↔︎ | Wage-cost floor (Eurostat, 2025) |
Freight | Baltic Dry 1 340 | ↘︎ | Bulk capacity easing (Reuters, 2025h) |
FBX Asia–NEU $2 459 / FEU | ↗︎ | GRIs gaining (Freightos, 2025) | |
Prices | CRB 296.2 | ↗︎ | Commodity creep (Trading Economics, 2025) |
Brent $66.35 | ↗︎ | Bunker-cost alert (Reuters, 2025a) | |
Copper tariff premium $600 / t | ↓ | Hedging window narrows (Reuters, 2025i) | |
Credit | Student-loan delinquency 8 % | ↑ | U.S. discretionary risk (Reuters, 2025e) |
Auto-loan debt $1.64 tn | ↑ | OEM build volatility (Reuters, 2025m) |
DEEP-DIVE DEAL - “Hormuz Headwind”
With Brent above $66/bbl and war-risk chatter rising, Fujairah bunker suppliers lifted premiums by $18 / mt overnight (Reuters, 2025a). Even a brief Hormuz closure would add 9–12 days to Gulf–Asia voyages and inflate fuel surcharges by ≈ $150 / FEU.
Playbook for CPOs & Logistics Heads
Bunker clauses — Move from fixed to Brent-linked formulas before carriers re-price.
Routing drills — Validate Cape-of-Good-Hope transit times for critical SKUs; update safety stock.
Hedging — Three-month low-sulphur fuel-oil swaps sit in backwardation—topsides are cheap.
COMMODITY CORNER
Move | Context | Action |
|---|---|---|
Brent +1.5 % to $66.35 on strike fears (Reuters, 2025a) | Middle-East risk premium reflates. | Lock bunker hedges; budget +3 % freight costs. |
Copper premium crash to $600 / t (Reuters, 2025i) | Imports swamp U.S. ahead of tariffs. | Pull forward U.S. buys; delay EU spot. |
SUPPLIER RADAR
Wolfspeed preparing Chapter 11—SiC wafer supply for EV inverters under threat (Reuters, 2025o).
Bosch plans multi-billion-euro bond to fund capex & M&A—watch Tier-2 liquidity (Reuters, 2025p).
TECH & TACTICS
Auto-monitor the Baltic.
Use Google Sheets’ IMPORTXML on Reuters’ .BADI quote page to fetch live BDI hourly, then trigger a Slack webhook when the index drops ≥ 3 % day-over-day—gives freight buyers a 24 h lead on negotiating rate dips (Reuters, 2025h).
ONE-LINE VERDICT
Hormuz risk puts oil back on centre stage, bulk freight costs level off, and tariff drag plus consumer-credit cracks portend a choppy summer—tighten bunker clauses, bring metal purchases forward, and keep inventories nimble.
Abbreviation Register
Abbreviation | Meaning / Definition |
|---|---|
API | Application Programming Interface – automated data exchange between software systems |
BDI | Baltic Dry Index – benchmark for global dry-bulk freight rates |
bbl | Barrel – 159 litres of crude oil |
Brent | Brent Crude – North-Sea oil benchmark used for global pricing |
CEO | Chief Executive Officer |
CPO | Chief Procurement Officer |
CRB Index | Commodities Research Bureau Index – broad raw-materials price basket |
EA / EZ | Euro Area / Eurozone – countries using the euro currency |
FEU | Forty-Foot Equivalent Unit – 40-foot shipping container |
GRI | General Rate Increase – scheduled ocean-freight surcharge |
ISM | Institute for Supply Management – publishes U.S. PMI surveys |
KPI | Key Performance Indicator |
mt | Metric tonne (1 000 kg) |
PMI | Purchasing Managers’ Index – diffusion index of manufacturing or services activity |
PO | Purchase Order |
ppt | Percentage point – absolute change in a percentage value |
SiC | Silicon Carbide – semiconductor material for power electronics |
SKU | Stock-Keeping Unit – distinct inventory item |
U.S. / US | United States (country, used for data attribution) |
w/w | Week over week – comparison with the previous week |
y/y | Year over year – comparison with the same period a year earlier |
Sources List
Eurostat. (2025). Euro area unemployment at 6.2 % – March 2025. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/3-02052025-bp
Freightos. (2025). Transpac ocean rates climbing on China-US rebound – May 20 2025 update. Retrieved from https://www.freightos.com/freight-industry-updates/weekly-freight-updates/transpac-ocean-rates-climbing-on-china-us-rebound-may-20-2025-update/
Reuters. (2025a). Oil gains as reports Israel may attack Iran raise supply worries. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-1-reports-israel-preparing-strike-iranian-nuclear-facilities-2025-05-21/
Reuters. (2025b). US manufacturing sector slump deepens in April. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-manufacturing-sectors-slump-deepens-april-2025-05-01/
Reuters. (2025c). Euro zone manufacturing showed more signs of stabilisation in April – PMI. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/euro-zone-manufacturing-showed-more-signs-stabilisation-april-pmi-2025-05-02/
Reuters. (2025d). China’s factory activity speeds up on export boost, Caixin PMI shows. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-factory-activity-speeds-up-export-boost-caixin-pmi-shows-2025-04-01/
Reuters. (2025e). NY Fed: Student-loan borrowing trouble surged in first quarter. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ny-fed-student-loan-borrowing-trouble-surged-first-quarter-2025-05-13/
Reuters. (2025f). April US payrolls growth slows before full tariff impact felt. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/us/view-april-us-payrolls-growth-slows-before-full-tariff-impact-felt-2025-05-02/
Reuters. (2025g). US labor market stable; tariffs depress single-family homebuilding. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-labor-market-remains-stable-2025-04-17/
Reuters. (2025h). .BADI – Baltic Dry Index. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/quote/.BADI/
Trading Economics. (2025). CRB Commodity Index – price data. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crb
Reuters. (2025i). Copper’s US tariff premium crushed by wave of imports. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/coppers-us-tariff-premium-crushed-by-wave-imports-2025-05-19/
Reuters. (2025m). NY Fed finds rising consumer debt amid some fraying for car loans. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ny-fed-finds-rising-consumer-debt-amid-some-fraying-car-loans-2025-02-13/
Reuters. (2025n). Japan’s exports slow, shipments to US fall as tariffs bite. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/japans-exports-rise-april-shipments-us-slump-2025-05-21/
Reuters. (2025o). Wolfspeed prepares to file for bankruptcy within weeks, WSJ reports. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/wolfspeed-prepares-file-bankruptcy-within-weeks-wsj-reports-2025-05-20/
Reuters. (2025p). Bosch to raise several billion euros through bond, Handelsblatt says. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/bosch-raise-several-billion-euros-through-bond-handelsblatt-says-2025-05-20/
