Weekly intelligence for Supply-Chain, Procurement & CEO desks
EXEC SNAPSHOT
Crude cool-down. Brent slipped -1.4 % to $63.86 / bbl after signs of a U.S.–Iran thaw and talk that OPEC+ will lift July output (Reuters, 2025a).
Capex caution. U.S. core capital-goods orders fell -1.3 % m/m in April—first drop this year—flagging weaker H2 equipment spend (Reuters, 2025b).
Eurozone loses pulse. Flash composite PMI sank to 49.5 in May, ending a two-month growth run (Reuters, 2025c).
Canal watch. Panama traffic stuck at 33.7 ships/day—about 7 % under capacity—maintaining latent delay risk on Asia-to-U.S. routings (Reuters, 2025d).
Stat of the Week U.S. core capital-goods orders fell -1.3 % m/m in April —the first monthly drop of 2025 and a clear warning that corporate capex is stalling (Reuters, 2025b).
KPI DASHBOARD
Pulse | Latest | w/w Dir. | Read-Through |
|---|---|---|---|
Demand | ISM Mfg PMI 48.7 | ↘︎ | U.S. orders still contracting (Reuters, 2025e) |
EZ Composite PMI 49.5 | ↘︎ | First contraction since Feb (Reuters, 2025c) | |
Caixin PMI 50.4 | ↘︎ | Tariffs dent exports (Reuters, 2025f) | |
Labour (US) | Jobless Claims 227 k | ↘︎ | Lay-offs muted (Reuters, 2025g) |
Payrolls +177 k | — | Hiring steady (Reuters, 2025n) | |
Labour (EU) | Unemployment 6.2 % | ↔︎ | Wage-cost floor (Eurostat, 2025) |
Freight | Baltic Dry 1 340 | ↘︎ | Bulk demand easing (Reuters, 2025h) |
FBX Asia–USWC $2 788 | ↗︎ | Tariff-pause rush (Freightos, 2025) | |
FBX Asia–NEU $2 351 | ↘︎ | Shipper push-back (Freightos, 2025) | |
Prices | CRB Index 362.8 | ↗︎ | Broad commodity lift (Trading Economics, 2025) |
Brent $63.86 | ↘︎ | Cheaper bunkers near-term (Reuters, 2025a) | |
Cu tariff premium $600 / t | ↔︎ | Hedging window narrows (Reuters, 2025i) | |
Credit | Student-loan delinquency 8 % | ↑ | U.S. discretionary risk (Reuters, 2025j) |
Auto-loan balance $1.66 tn | ↑ | OEM demand volatility (Reuters, 2025k) |
DEEP-DIVE DEAL — “Tariff-Pause Traffic Spike”
Importers are racing to beat the 90-day U.S. tariff reprieve that ends 9 July. FBX West-Coast spot rates are now +34 % vs. early April, and carriers have re-activated ~8 % of idled capacity (Freightos, 2025; Reuters, 2025b).
Playbook for CPOs & Logistics Heads
Front-load POs —Ship July/August demand by mid-June and lock space under fixed-rate deals.
Split routings —Add Gulf/East-Coast options to hedge inevitable West-Coast congestion.
Bunker clauses —With Brent drifting lower, switch to MGO-linked formulas before liners reset fuel surcharges.
COMMODITY CORNER
Move | Context | Action |
|---|---|---|
Brent -1.4 % to $63.86 (Reuters, 2025a) | OPEC+ hints at July hike. | Delay H2 hedge; refresh bunker budgets. |
Cu premium steady at $600/t (Reuters, 2025i) | U.S. awash with pre-tariff metal. | Pull forward U.S. buys; postpone EU spot. |
SUPPLIER RADAR
Wolfspeed lines up Chapter 11—SiC wafer supply for EV inverters at risk; qualify alt nodes now (Reuters, 2025l).
Bosch plans multi-billion-euro bond—monitor liquidity of Tier-2s reliant on Bosch payables (Reuters, 2025m).
TECH & TACTICS
Tariff-Clock Webhook.
Use a Python cron job to poll the USTR tariff-pause API hourly and push Slack alerts at D-30 / D-7 / D-2—ensuring no one misses the load-out window. Documentation is open and key-free.
ONE-LINE VERDICT
Tariff-driven front-loading is reheating ocean rates just as crude cools and capex falters—ship early, hedge sparingly, keep inventories nimble.
Abbreviation Register
Abbreviation | Meaning / Definition |
|---|---|
API | Application Programming Interface – automated data exchange between software systems |
BDI | Baltic Dry Index – benchmark for global dry-bulk freight rates |
bbl | Barrel – 159 litres of crude oil |
Brent | Brent Crude – North-Sea oil benchmark used for global pricing |
CPO | Chief Procurement Officer |
CEO | Chief Executive Officer |
CRB Index | Commodities Research Bureau Index – broad raw-materials price basket |
EZ | Eurozone – countries using the euro currency |
FBX | Freightos Baltic Container Index – daily spot-rate benchmark for ocean freight |
FEU | Forty-Foot Equivalent Unit – 40-foot shipping container |
ISM | Institute for Supply Management – publishes U.S. PMI surveys |
KPI | Key Performance Indicator |
m/m | Month over month – comparison with the previous month |
MGO | Marine Gas Oil – low-sulphur bunker fuel for ships |
OPEC+ | Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allied producers |
PO | Purchase Order |
PMI | Purchasing Managers’ Index – diffusion index of manufacturing or services activity |
SiC | Silicon Carbide – semiconductor material for power electronics |
SKU | Stock-Keeping Unit – distinct inventory item |
USTR | United States Trade Representative – administers tariff measures |
USWC | U.S. West Coast – main Pacific container-port range |
w/w | Week over week – comparison with the previous week |
Sources List
Eurostat. (2025). Euro area unemployment at 6.2 % – March 2025. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Unemployment_statistics
Freightos. (2025). Transpac ocean volumes surge during tariff pause – 27 May 2025 update. Retrieved from https://www.freightos.com/freight-industry-updates/weekly-freight-updates/transpac-ocean-volumes-surge-during-tariff-pause-us-eu-tensions-rising-may-27-2025-update/
Reuters. (2025a). Oil little changed as higher OPEC+ output expectations weigh on sentiment. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-edges-down-potential-higher-opec-output-eyed-2025-05-27/
Reuters. (2025b). Plummeting US core capital goods orders point to weak business spending. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-core-capital-goods-orders-tumble-april-2025-05-27/
Reuters. (2025c). Euro zone May business activity unexpectedly contracts, PMI shows. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/euro-zone-may-business-activity-surprisingly-contracts-pmi-shows-2025-05-22/
Reuters. (2025d). Panama Canal traffic fell to 33.7 ships per day in March, authority says. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/panama-canal-traffic-fell-337-ships-per-day-march-authority-says-2025-04-10/
Reuters. (2025e). US manufacturing sector slump deepens in April. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-manufacturing-sectors-slump-deepens-april-2025-05-01/ Reuters
Reuters. (2025f). China's factory activity slows as US tariffs hit export orders. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-factory-activity-slows-us-tariffs-hit-export-orders-2025-04-30/
Reuters. (2025g). Low weekly jobless claims point to stable US labor market. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-labor-market-remains-stable-2025-05-22/
Reuters. (2025h). .BADI – Baltic Dry Index. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/quote/.BADI/ Reuters
Reuters. (2025i). Copper’s US tariff premium crushed by wave of imports. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/coppers-us-tariff-premium-crushed-by-wave-imports-andy-home-2025-05-16/
Reuters. (2025j). NY Fed: Student-loan borrowing trouble surged in first quarter. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ny-fed-student-loan-borrowing-trouble-surged-first-quarter-2025-05-13/ Reuters
Reuters. (2025k). NY Fed finds rising consumer debt amid some fraying for car loans. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ny-fed-finds-rising-consumer-debt-amid-some-fraying-car-loans-2025-02-13/ Reuters
Reuters. (2025l). Wolfspeed prepares to file for bankruptcy within weeks, WSJ reports. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/wolfspeed-prepares-file-bankruptcy-within-weeks-wsj-reports-2025-05-20/ Reuters
Reuters. (2025m). Bosch to raise several billion euros through bond, Handelsblatt says. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/bosch-raise-several-billion-euros-through-bond-handelsblatt-says-2025-05-20/ Reuters
Reuters. (2025n). VIEW – April US payrolls growth slows before full tariff impact felt. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/us/view-april-us-payrolls-growth-slows-before-full-tariff-impact-felt-2025-05-02/ Reuters
Trading Economics. (2025). CRB Commodity Index – price data. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crb
