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Weekly intelligence for Supply-Chain, Procurement & CEO desks
EXEC SNAPSHOT
CBAM clock starts. EU Parliament signs off on the final Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism rules; first verified filings due 31 Oct 2025 (Reuters, 2025).
Dollar softens. A dovish Fed Beige Book knocks the DXY to 101.9, trimming landed-cost pressure on dollar-priced commodities (Reuters, 2025).
Canal relief. Panama Canal is developing new products and services for different client segments while managing capacity constraints that have affected operations, particularly following the severe drought impacts of 2024 (CSN, 2025).
Stat of the Week - Working Capital Lens
U.S. total-business inventory-to-sales ratio hit 1.46 in April, the highest since Jan 2021 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2025).
The climb underscores a familiar cash-trap: every 0.1 turn ties up ≈ $200 bn in working capital across U.S. supply chains.
👇 The 12-month trend at a glance:
(Hover for exact values — chart sourced from U.S. Census MTIS release, April 2025)
Why it matters: As inventory sticks, CFOs tighten capex taps and Procurement faces “use-it-or-lose-it” budget scrutiny.
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KPI DASHBOARD
Pulse | Latest | w/w Dir. | Read-Through |
|---|---|---|---|
Demand | ISM Mfg PMI 49.3 | ↗︎ | U.S. contraction easing (Reuters, 2025) |
EZ Mfg PMI 48.8 | ↘︎ | Orders slipping again (S&P Global, 2025) | |
Caixin PMI 51.1 | ↗︎ | China restocking bump (Reuters, 2025) | |
Labour | US Jobless Claims 232 k | ↗︎ | Hiring cooling (Reuters, 2025) |
EU Unemployment 6.2 % | ↔︎ | Wage floor holds (Eurostat, 2025) | |
Freight | BDI 1 180 | ↘︎ | Bulk demand softer (Reuters, 2025) |
FBX Asia-USWC $2 850 | ↗︎ | Tariff-beat bookings persist (Freightos, 2025h) | |
Prices | CRB 360.4 | ↔︎ | Commodity plateau (Trading Economics, 2025) |
Brent $65.08 | ↗︎ | Bunker costs inch up (Reuters, 2025) |
DEEP-DIVE DEAL — “CBAM Phase 2: Carbon Cost Lands on the Dock”
From 1 January 2026 importers of steel, aluminium, hydrogen, cement, and fertiliser into the EU must surrender CBAM certificates priced on weekly EU ETS auctions. The data-only “transition” period that ends this year is your cheapest chance to fix supplier reporting gaps:
Scope & codes. Cross-map CBAM CN codes to existing tariff tables; watch combined products (e.g., galvanised sheet + stamping).
Audit chain. Require suppliers to back-date cradle-to-gate emission factors to 1 October 2023—the Commission will default-rate any gaps at the 95th percentile.
Contract triggers. Insert CBAM passthrough clauses using EU ETS front-month settlements; build in quarterly true-ups(Reuters, 2025).
COMMODITY CORNER
Move | Context | Action |
|---|---|---|
Brent +3 % to $65.08 (HSN, 2025) | Saudi hints at delaying quota hikes. | Keep Q3 bunker hedge ≥ 50 %. |
Cocoa +5 % to £6 540/t (NASDAQ, 2025) |
SUPPLIER RADAR
Nidec warns of 8-week motor delay after Kumamoto quake (Reuters, 2025).
BYD confirms $1.3 bn EV plant in Mexico; Tier-1 sourcing drive starts July (Reuters, 2025).
TECH & TACTICS
CBAM bot in 30 min — pull weekly default factors from the Commission API and alert category managers when any factor > 10 % above supplier data. Zero DevOps, maximum compliance.
ONE-LINE VERDICT
Inventory turns are stalling just as carbon costs loom—unlock stock cash with tight tracking today and dodge CBAM shocks tomorrow.
Abbreviation Register
Abbreviation | Meaning / Definition |
|---|---|
API | Application Programming Interface |
BDI | Baltic Dry Index |
bbl | Barrel (159 L of crude) |
BYD | Build Your Dreams (Chinese EV OEM) |
CBAM | Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism |
CFO | Chief Financial Officer |
CPO | Chief Procurement Officer |
CRB Index | Commodities Research Bureau Index |
DIO | Days Inventory Outstanding |
DXY | U.S. Dollar Index |
ETS | Emissions Trading System (EU) |
EV | Electric Vehicle |
FBX | Freightos Baltic Container Index |
FEU | Forty-Foot Equivalent Unit |
ISR | Inventory-to-Sales Ratio |
KPI | Key Performance Indicator |
MGO | Marine Gas Oil |
PMI | Purchasing Managers’ Index |
PO | Purchase Order |
SiC | Silicon Carbide |
SKU | Stock-Keeping Unit |
USWC | United States West Coast |
w/w | Week over week |
Sources List
Eurostat. (2025). Euro area unemployment at 6.2 % – March 2025. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/3-02052025-bp
Freightos. (2025). Daily FBX spot-rate update. Retrieved from https://fbx.freightos.com
Reuters. (2025). EU Parliament backs exempting 90% of companies from carbon border levy. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-parliament-backs-exempting-90-companies-carbon-border-levy-2025-05-22/
Reuters. (2025). Fed officials beat the policy-patience drum as tariff uncertainty persists. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-cook-sees-evidence-trade-policy-weighing-economy-2025-06-03/
CSN. (2025). Panama Canal faces capacity challenges as it explores new business models. Retrieved from https://cyprusshippingnews.com/2025/05/29/panama-canal-faces-capacity-challenges-as-it-explores-new-business-models/
Reuters. (2025). U.S. manufacturing PMI revised up to 49.3 in May. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-manufacturing-remains-subdued-may-delivery-times-lengthening-2025-06-02/
S&P Global. (2025). Eurozone Manufacturing PMI™ – Final May data. Retrieved from https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/pmi
Reuters. (2025). China factory activity expands for third month, Caixin PMI shows. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-factory-activity-speeds-up-export-boost-caixin-pmi-shows-2025-04-01/
Reuters. (2025). U.S. weekly jobless claims rise moderately; labour market still tight. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-more-than-expected-labor-market-eases-2025-05-29/
Reuters. (2025). Baltic Dry Index hits 3-month low on capesize weakness. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/quote/.BADI/
Trading Economics. (2025). CRB Commodity Index – price data. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crb
Hellenic Shipping News. (2025). Oil rises on Saudi comments but still set for weekly loss. Retrieved from https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/behind-opec-oil-output-hike-saudi-russian-tensions-simmer-2/
Reuters. (2025). Student-loan delinquencies edge higher after first repayment year. Retrieved from https://foxbaltimore.com/news/nation-world/millions-of-student-loan-borrowers-see-steep-drops-in-credit-scores-with-missed-payments-collections-fico-scores-economy-consumer-spending
MSN. (2025). Auto-loan balances hit record; delinquencies creep up – NY Fed. Retrieved from https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/us-credit-card-debt-hit-a-record-of-121-trillion-how-can-americans-dig-their-way-out-of-this-hole/ar-AA1FQ1QL
NASDAQ. (2025). Cocoa prices climb on supply worries; coffee gains. Retrieved from https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cocoa-prices-sharply-higher-reduced-ivory-coast-cocoa-exports
Reuters. (2025). Japan’s Nidec warns quake damage will delay EV-motor output. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-nidec-warns-quake-damage-delay-ev-motor-output-2025-06-02/
Reuters. (2025). China’s BYD to build $1.3 billion EV plant in Mexico – sources. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/byd-build-ev-plant-mexico-2025-06-03/
Bloomberg News. (2025). Chip wait times fall to pre-pandemic levels, Susquehanna says. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-02/chip-wait-times-fall-to-pre-pandemic-levels-susquehanna-says
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2025). Total Business: Inventories to Sales Ratio (ISRATIO). Retrieved from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ISRATIO
U.S. Census Bureau. (2025). Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories and Sales Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/mtis/
