Weekly intelligence for Supply-Chain, Procurement & CEO desks
EXEC SNAPSHOT
ECB taps the brakes – By trimming its deposit rate to 2.00 % on 5 June and promising a “meeting-by-meeting” pause, the European Central Bank shifted policy to neutral (Reuters, 2025a).
Inflation test in the United States – May Consumer Price Index data drop at 08:30 ET; economists see core CPI up 0.3 % m/m as new tariff rounds hit shelf prices (Reuters, 2025b).
Trans-Pacific freight shock – Asia-to-US West Coast spot rates jumped 98 % w/w to $5 488 per 40-ft box after shippers rushed to beat Q3 duty windows (Freightos, 2025).
STAT OF THE WEEK – FREIGHT BUDGET BLUES
That single-week $2 638 rise on the FBX Asia→US West Coast lane lifts annual freight spend by ≈ $4 million for an importer moving 1 500 FEU—a cash drain otherwise available for working capital (Freightos, 2025).
Smooth next step — digital forwarder Forto offers “rate caps” that auto-lock once quotes spike 10 % above their 30-day mean.
KPI DASHBOARD
Pulse | Latest reading | w/w move | Read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
Demand | US ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.5 (May) | ↓ | Factory contraction persists (ISM, 2025a) |
US ISM Services PMI 49.9 (May) | ↓ | First services dip below 50 since 2024 (ISM, 2025b) | |
Euro-zone Composite PMI 49.5 (May) | ↓ | Bloc slips back into decline (Reuters, 2025c) | |
Caixin China Services PMI 51.1 (May) | ↑ | Domestic orders still expanding (Reuters, 2025d) | |
Labour | US initial jobless claims 247 000 | ↑ | Hiring chill spreads (Reuters, 2025e) |
Euro-area unemployment 6.2 % (Apr) | ↓ | Wage pressure steady (Eurostat, 2025) | |
Freight | Baltic Dry Index 1 680 | ↑ | Bulk chartering recovery (Reuters, 2025f) |
FBX Asia→US WC $5 488 | ↑ | Tariff-beat bookings soar (Freightos, 2025) | |
Prices | CRB commodity basket 366.9 | ↑ | Broad cost creep (Trading Economics, 2025) |
Brent crude $66.96 / bbl | ↑ | Seven-week high on trade optimism (Reuters, 2025g) |
DEEP-DIVE DEAL — “EUDR: 200 Days to Plot-Level Proof”
The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will apply to large operators from 30 December 2025; smaller firms follow on 30 June 2026 (European Commission, 2025). Three immediate procurement moves:
Map tariff codes to scope – include derivatives such as leather seat-covers and compound food products.
Geo-evidence audit – ask suppliers for field polygons and Sentinel-2 imagery back to 1 January 2021; gaps trigger high-risk exclusion.
Contract trigger – link delivery-versus-evidence clauses to the weekly EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) settlement for price transparency.
First movers dodge a year-end customs pile-up and secure “deforestation-free” claims before rivals.
COMMODITY CORNER
Move | Context | Action |
|---|---|---|
Copper –1.5 % to $9 940 / t | LME stocks hit a 12-month low of 132 400 t, deepening cash-premium backwardation (Reuters, 2025h). | Hold ≥ 40 % Q3 hedge; watch US Midwest premium. |
Hot-rolled coil steel +7 % to $910 / short-ton | US doubles steel and aluminium tariffs to 50 %; spot prices spike (Reuters, 2025i). | Advance-buy Q3 volumes; renegotiate surcharge caps. |
Brent +0.4 % to $66.96 / bbl | OPEC+ adds 411 000 bpd in July while markets await US-China trade detail (Reuters, 2025g). | Maintain bunker hedge ≥ 50 % through Q3. |
SUPPLIER RADAR
Foxconn will invest US $1.5 billion expanding its Tamil Nadu iPhone-component hub; RFQs for moulded plastics and fasteners due late June (Reuters, 2025j).
Rare-earth squeeze – China’s new magnet-export licence regime cuts shipments by half, risking EU electric-motor shutdowns within weeks (Reuters, 2025k).
TECH & TACTICS
Spin up an EUDR geo-checker in 30 minutes – pull supplier polygons via the Commission’s Information-System API, overlay in Google Earth Engine, flag parcels with < 85 % canopy retention since 2021, then auto-notify commodity buyers.
ONE-LINE VERDICT
Ocean rates are spiking just as proof-of-origin rules tighten—secure freight, geo-tag suppliers and keep cash liquid for the tariff era ahead.
Abbreviation Register
Abbrev. | Meaning |
|---|---|
bpd | barrels per day (crude-oil flow unit) |
BDI | Baltic Dry Index (global bulk-freight barometer) |
CPI | Consumer Price Index |
CRB | Commodities Research Bureau Index |
E & OE | errors and omissions excepted (disclaimer in contracts) |
ECB | European Central Bank |
EUDR | EU Deforestation Regulation |
ETS | EU Emissions Trading System |
FEU | forty-foot equivalent unit (container size) |
ISM | Institute for Supply Management |
KPI | key performance indicator |
LME | London Metal Exchange |
PMI | Purchasing Managers’ Index |
RFQ | request for quotation |
USWC | U.S. West Coast |
Sources
European Commission. (2025, April 15). EUDR implementation guidance [Web page]. https://green-forum.ec.europa.eu/deforestation-regulation-implementation_en green-forum.ec.europa.eu
Freightos. (2025, June 10). Container rates surging as shippers rush ahead of deadlines [Blog post]. https://www.freightos.com/freight-industry-updates/weekly-freight-updates/container-rates-surging-as-shippers-rush-ahead-of-deadlines-june-10-2025-update/ freightos.com
Institute for Supply Management. (2025a, June 3). May 2025 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/may/ ismworld.org
Institute for Supply Management. (2025b, June 5). May 2025 Services ISM® Report On Business®. https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/may/ ismworld.org
Eurostat. (2025, June 3). Euro area unemployment at 6.2 % – April 2025 [News release]. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/3-03062025-bp ec.europa.eu
Koranyi, B., & Canepa, F. (2025, June 5). ECB cuts rates again but hints at pause. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ecb-cut-rates-again-case-builds-summer-pause-2025-06-04/ reuters.com
Mutikani, L. (2025, June 11). Tariffs expected to lift underlying US consumer prices in May. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/tariffs-seen-lifting-underlying-us-consumer-prices-may-2025-06-11/ reuters.com
Rees, W. (2025, June 4). Euro-zone business growth stalls in May as services stumble, PMI shows. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/euro-zone-business-growth-stalls-may-services-stumble-pmi-shows-2025-06-04/ reuters.com
Gao, L., & Woo, R. (2025, June 5). China May services activity grows despite US tariff concerns, Caixin PMI shows. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-may-services-activity-grows-despite-us-tariff-concerns-caixin-pmi-shows-2025-06-05/ reuters.com
Mutikani, L. (2025, June 5). Weekly jobless claims hit seven-month high.* Reuters*. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-second-straight-week-2025-06-05/ reuters.com
Reuters. (2025, June 11). Baltic Dry Index (.BADI) quote page. https://www.reuters.com/markets/quote/.BADI/ reuters.com
Trading Economics. (2025, June 11). Live commodities quote table (CRB Index). https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities tradingeconomics.com
Tunagur, E. (2025, June 11). Oil steady near 7-week high as investors await US-China deal details. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-down-markets-assess-us-china-trade-talks-outcome-2025-06-11/ reuters.com
Home, A. (2025, June 6). Falling LME copper stocks inflate premium for nearby contracts. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/falling-lme-copper-stocks-inflate-premium-nearby-contracts-2025-06-06/ reuters.com
Azhar, S., Chakravarty, K., & Gupta, S. (2025, June 2). S&P closes higher as Trump doubles steel tariffs. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-futures-slip-after-trumps-steel-aluminum-tariff-threats-2025-06-02/ reuters.com
Reuters. (2025, May 20). Apple supplier Foxconn to invest $1.5 billion in India unit. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/apple-supplier-foxconn-invest-15-billion-india-unit-2025-05-20/ reuters.com
Reuters. (2025, May 30). Automakers warn of rare-earth magnet shortage amid Chinese export curbs. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-magnet-pinch-threatens-car-production-automakers-warn-2025-05-30/ reuters.com
