Weekly intelligence for Supply-Chain, Procurement & CEO desks
EXEC SNAPSHOT
Fuel repricing. Brent (North Sea crude benchmark) eased to $67.99 /bbl after an Israel–Iran cease-fire erased the “security premium” (Reuters, 2025a).
Demand divergence. S&P Global’s flash US Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) 52.8 signals steady expansion, while the euro-area composite stagnated at 50.2 (Reuters, 2025b; Reuters, 2025c).
Freight rollback. Asia-to-US West Coast rates on the FBX (Freightos Baltic Container Index) fell 7 % to $5 593 per FEU – forty-foot equivalent unit (40-ft container), the first weekly drop since early May (Freightos, 2025).
STAT OF THE WEEK – LEADING-INDICATOR JITTERS
The U.S. LEI (Leading Economic Index) dipped 0.1 pt to 99.0 in May—the sixth consecutive fall. Since 1990 each 0.1-point slide has shaved ≈ 0.04 ppt from next-quarter real GDP, a combo that has preceded recession in seven of nine cases (Conference Board, 2025).
The Conference Board. The LEI declined marginally in May (June 20, 2025)
KPI DASHBOARD
Pulse | Latest | w/w dir. | Read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
Demand | US S&P Global PMI 52.8 | ↓ | Growth moderating; tariffs stoke costs (Reuters, 2025b) |
Euro-area PMI 50.2 | ↔︎ | Flat-line keeps ECB cautious (Reuters, 2025c) | |
Caixin China Mfg PMI 48.3 | ↓ | Manufacturing back in contraction (Reuters, 2025g) | |
Labour | US jobless claims 245 k | ↗︎ | Lay-offs inch higher (Reuters, 2025f) |
Euro-area unemployment 6.2 % (Apr) | ↔︎ | Wage floor holds (Eurostat, 2025) | |
Freight | BDI (Baltic Dry Index) 1 681 | ↑ | Bulk rally fades late week (Reuters, 2025e) |
FBX Asia-USWC $5 593 | ↓ | Peak-season bookings cool (Freightos, 2025) | |
Prices | CRB (FTSE/CoreCommodity index) 364.6 | ↓ | Broad commodity retreat (Trading Economics, 2025a) |
TTF (Title Transfer Facility gas hub) €35/MWh | ↓ | LNG (liquefied natural gas) arrivals cap price (Trading Economics, 2025b) | |
Brent $68/bbl | ↓ | Risk premium unwinds (Reuters, 2025a) |
DEEP-DIVE DEAL — “Copper Chaos: LME Speed Bumps & Tariff Arb”
On 25 Jun the LME (London Metal Exchange) imposed temporary position limits on copper and aluminium after inventories hit multi-year lows and cash-to-3-month spreads blew out past $150/t (Reuters, 2025d).
Why it matters – U.S. Section 232 tariff chatter has diverted units to CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) warehouses, starving the LME of deliverable brands. Long-dated RFQs (requests for quotation) pegged to LME prices now bake in synthetic squeeze premia unrelated to physical supply.
Playbook for buyers
Hedge-switch long exposure to CME September where contango prevails.
Tariff triggers – add a CME–LME differential clause, resetting quarterly.
Warrant audit – ensure lots meet any tighter LME brand rules.
COMMODITY CORNER
Move | Context | Procurement action |
|---|---|---|
Brent crude – 9 % w/w to $68 / bbl | Israel-Iran cease-fire pares Hormuz risk (Reuters, 2025a) | Keep bunker-fuel hedge ≤ 40 % for Q3 |
Copper + 1 % w/w to $9 800 / t | Funds rotate back after LME (London Metal Exchange) clampdown on spreads (Reuters, 2025d) | Lock Sep–Nov cover before curve steepens |
TTF gas – 10 % m/m to €35 / MWh | EU storage 74 % full; LNG (liquefied natural gas) glut (Trading Economics, 2025a) | Extend winter strip at €40 ceiling |
Wood (CME lumber) + 3 % w/w to $609 / 1 000 board ft | Tariff probe on Canadian imports lifts futures (Trading Economics, 2025b) | Forward-buy Q3 housing-related projects |
Cocoa – 5 % w/w to $8 560 / t | West-African mid-crop improves; funds unwind longs (Trading Economics, 2025c) | Top-up Q4 cover while backwardation narrows |
Steel (US HRC) + 2 % w/w to $901 / t | 50 % import-tariff threat fuels restocking (Reuters, 2025e) | Advance-buy Q3 tonnage; renegotiate surcharge caps |
Plastic mold resin (PP injection grade) flat at ≈ €1 090 / t | Weak EU auto demand offsets feed-stock dip (ChemAnalyst, 2025) | Buy hand-to-mouth; watch July tariff-retaliation list |
SUPPLIER RADAR
Northvolt – Bankruptcy trustee received a first bid for the Skellefteå gigafactory; EU battery-cell continuity hinges on a Q3 deal (Reuters, 2025h).
FedEx – Halts new pickups to Israel & Iraq as aviation war-risk insurance spikes, adding 2–3 days via EU hubs (Reuters, 2025i).
ONE-LINE VERDICT
Energy risk is deflating while metals volatility is back—bank the oil slide, harvest lower container rates, and brace for copper-curve whiplash.
Sources
Conference Board. (2025, June 20). Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the United States declined again in May 2025. Retrieved from https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-june-2025 conference-board.org
Eurostat. (2025, June 3). Euro area unemployment at 6.2 % – April 2025 [News release]. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/3-03062025-bp
Freightos. (2025, June 24). Transpac rates falling sharply; Israel–Iran cease-fire could avert freight disruptions. Retrieved from https://www.freightos.com/freight-industry-updates/weekly-freight-updates/transpac-rates-falling-sharply-israel-iran-ceasefire-could-avert-freight-disruptions-june-24-2025-update freightos.com
Reuters. (2025a, June 24). Oil prices drop 6 % as Israel–Iran cease-fire reduces supply risk. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-oil-futures-fall-over-3-trump-announces-israel-iran-ceasefire-2025-06-23/ reuters.com
Reuters. (2025b, June 23). US business activity moderates; price pressures building up. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/us-business-activity-moderates-price-pressures-building-up-2025-06-23/ reuters.com
Reuters. (2025c, June 23). Euro-zone growth stalls in June with sluggish services, manufacturing. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/euro-zone-growth-stalls-june-with-sluggish-services-manufacturing-2025-06-23/ reuters.com
Reuters. (2025d, June 25). LME’s new position rules reflect a changed metals landscape. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/lmes-new-position-rules-reflect-changed-metals-landscape-2025-06-25/ reuters.com
Reuters. (2025e, June 2). Hot-rolled-coil steel prices jump on tariff news. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-minimise-impact-50-tariff-steel-products-ministry-says-2025-06-02/
Reuters. (2025f, June 25). .BADI – Baltic Dry Index quote page. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/quote/.BADI/ reuters.com
Reuters. (2025fg June 18). US weekly jobless claims, housing data point to softening economy. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-still-elevated-2025-06-18/ reuters.com
Reuters. (2025h, June 3). China’s factory activity cools in May as US tariffs hit. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-factory-activity-cools-may-us-tariffs-hit-2025-06-03/ reuters.com
Reuters. (2025i, June 24). Battery maker Northvolt gets indicative bid, trustee says. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/battery-maker-northvolt-gets-indicative-bid-bankruptcy-trustee-tells-swedish-2025-06-24/ reuters.com
Reuters. (2025j, June 20). FedEx pauses pickups for shipments to Israel and Iraq. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/fedex-pauses-pickups-shipments-israel-iraq-2025-06-20/ reuters.com
Trading Economics. (2025a). CRB Commodity Index – price data. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crb tradingeconomics.com
Trading Economics. (2025b). EU Natural Gas (TTF) – price data. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas tradingeconomics.com
ChemAnalyst. (2025, June 10). European Polypropylene market holds steady amid weak demand and ample imports. Retrieved from https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/european-polypropylene-market-holds-steady-amid-weak-demand-and-ample-imports-37202
Trading Economics. (2025a). EU Natural Gas (TTF) price data. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
Trading Economics. (2025b). Lumber price data. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber
Trading Economics. (2025c). Cocoa price data. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cocoa
